Stock Picking Strategies, Part Four

Tuesday, June 10th, 2008

The Bull and BearLast time in this blog, we discussed value investing, which is essentially the strategy of finding a company that looks to have good prospects but is undervalued by other onlookers who are playing the market. One then buys stock in that company while it’s at a low price, and then enjoys the returns when their prediction pays off and the company’s value increases despite prevalent opinion to the contrary.

Growth Investing

Today, however, we’ll be looking at a competing strategy that has enjoyed just as much success and notoriety over the years: growth investing. Whereas value investors look at the present state of a company in order to forecast the wisdom in investing in them, a growth investor more or less ignore that in favour of attempting to assess a company’s future growth potential, regardless of its current price. In other words, while a value investor would ignore a high priced stock, regardless of the company behind it, a growth investor would not. He or she would look at the factors that would let them realize that that high priced stock is about to become a super-high priced stock, meaning they’ll be making just as much of a profit as the value investor would have in his or her value priced stocks.

Sudden explosive growth

Fundamental AnalysisSince a growth investor relies heavily on companies that experience sudden explosive growth, it makes sense that they would look to the two arenas that see that kind of activity most often: new businesses, and businesses in industries related to new technologies. There’s no hard and fast formula for determining whether or not a company that matches this criteria will actually experience the explosive growth that growth investors are hoping for, but by looking at certain matters of fundamental analysis such as whether or not the company has grown in the past, and matters of qualitative analysis such as how their current position in the market is looking, one can put together a reasonable assessment of a company’s potential future growth.

Risk levels for the investor

There is some sense in which growth investing is said to be riskier than value investing. While this may be so, it’s certainly a strategy that has met with a lot of success over the years, and continues to do so for those who know how to wisely employ it.

Join us next time as we look at more time-tested strategies for choosing the right stocks, at the right time.

See you next week for part 5 of Stock Picking Strategies.

Sean Rasmussen
The Bullhunters Guide
Universal Wealth Creation © 2004 - 2008

Stock Picking Strategies, Part Two

Tuesday, May 27th, 2008

Choosing a stockHello again, and welcome back. This time, we’re still discussing the different theories on how best to choose a stock that is poised to give big gains in the future. It sure sounds simple enough, but there are a lot of conflicting ideas out there, and we’re planning to examine each one in turn to see just how well they hold up.

The goal of fundamental analysis

Last time, we talked a bit about fundamental analysis, and how its main goal was to look at the numbers of a company in order to generate a mathematically supported future projection for the company’s cash flows. Since this is essentially the same kind of appraisal one would do when buying a company, it makes sense to apply it to the stock market, and indeed most of the strategies we’ll discuss here are simply an extension of evolution of the idea of fundamental analysis in some way or another.

Qualitative analysis

The first of these is qualitative analysis. What qualitative analysis has to say might seen very obvious, but it’s something that some of us don’t care to admit because it tends to throw a very large monkey wrench into our carefully controlled fundamental analysis calculations. The main idea behind qualitative analysis is that attention must be paid to the subjective, “quality”-based parts of a company, as well as the objective aspects of the situation (the numbers).

Appraising a company

To appraise a company in the qualitative sense, investors tend to need to do a lot of research and ask a lot of questions. Of course, in many cases, a lot of the research will already be done for them, but they still have to take the initiative to seek it out before they put their money down. Questions like the following tend to be very helpful in accessing the subjective quality of a company.

Where did the company come from? No company springs up overnight. Discover the company’s origins, and by extension, whether or not the company really seems to have a solid foundation under it.

Company policies

What ideas drive company policies? Companies that are in their respective industries to turn a fast buck and then cash out may have good numbers on paper but are clearly not wise ideas for long term investors. It pays, then, to know a thing or two about the philosophy behind a company’s leaders.

A close eye on “who’s in charge”

Who are the people in charge of this company? Oftentimes, a company will change hands, and this can happen without small scale investors even being aware of it if they aren’t paying attention. For this reason, it’s important to keep a close eye on the individuals in charge of the companies you’re invested in, in order to make sure that the individuals running them seem qualified for the job.

Of course, it’s also important to analyze the industry as a whole. No company exists in a vacuum, and the trends that affect the industry will affect the companies within that industry as well.

Real value of a company

As we can see, this whole concept of using “strategies” to pick stocks is going to be a lot more complicated than perhaps we foresaw. Of course, there are some sound tips coming up, and plenty of valuable information, but for now, meditate on this all important concept: the real value of a company has to be measured at least in part by real human inquiry, not just calculations and optimistic graphs.

See you next week for part 3 of Stock Picking Strategies.

Sean Rasmussen
The Bullhunters Guide
Universal Wealth Creation © 2004 - 2008

Basic Investment Strategies, Part Eight: Stick to What You Know

Tuesday, April 8th, 2008

Stick to the investment arenas you knowThis is probably another one of those common sense tips that tends to be overlooked and swept under the rug in favor of the latest “hot tip” or whatever happens to have come down the pipe. Nevertheless, these tips have been around for a reason: they’re important, and their wisdom bears repeating. This time around, we’re going to talk about the old adage of sticking with what you know.

Get the best results from what you know

You’ve probably heard this advice given most often in conjunction with the exercise of writing, under the pretense that by writing about the topics that one is most intimately familiar with, one can produce the best results. The same applies to investing. If you put money into industries that you don’t know the first thing about, you’re going to get into trouble and fast. Suppose that you open up your morning news paper to the technology section and read about Company X having developed an all new standard for etching circuits onto the surface of a microchip, one that can double the number of circuits of past chips. If you know nothing whatsoever about computer chips, then you wouldn’t know exactly what this meant for Company X. You wouldn’t be able to (accurately) speculate as to what it meant for them in terms of near future stock market activity and your hands would be tied. Everyone knows that following an industry’s developments is one of the best ways to know what’s going to happen in its corresponding market presence, so it pays to invest in those industries that you understand well enough to follow.

Satisfaction from investments

Getting the right resultsFurthermore, you’ll have the advantage of feeling more passionately about your investments, and you’ll derive a greater emotional satisfaction out of working with them. After all, part of the appeal of the stock market is that it’s a lot more fun than just letting your money sit in a bank somewhere! If you have an investment in a company that you used to work for, for instance, or a company that produces a product you use on a daily basis and feel a personal fondness for, you’ll have more invested than just your money. This isn’t just sentimentalism, either; the more you personally care for a company and its products, the more carefully you’ll be inclined to follow the trends that affect it, and ultimately affect your investment.

See you next week for part 9 of Basic Investment Strategies.

Sean Rasmussen
The Bullhunters Guide
Universal Wealth Creation © 2004 - 2008

Basic Investment Strategies, Part Six: Keep One Eye Open

Tuesday, March 25th, 2008

Stock market ideasWe’ve covered a lot of investment tips in this blog so far, and the majority of them have dealt with the idea that you shouldn’t be motivated into making sweeping changes to your portfolio or overall investment strategy as the result of panic. In other words, we’ve stressed weathering the storm, because this is one of the most important lessons that a beginning investor can learn to set his or herself apart from the total amateurs. Today, however, we’re going to shift gears a little bit and start dealing with that part of the stock market that tends to get everyone excited: the fast-paced fluctuation.

Buy and hold forever?

We’re going to bust a piece of conventional wisdom right now. It used to be the case that there were certain stocks out there that one could buy and hold forever. So called blue chip investments that would continue to grow and grow throughout the life of the investor, providing a constant return and a continuous source of reliable growth. However, those were simpler times.

Changes to the marketplace

Markets on the moveNowadays, industries are much more competitive and there are many more fish in the sea. The internet represents a whole new arena upon which corporations do battle, and it has so far proven to be one that can change the face of the entire market in both positive and negative ways. It’s a different world, and it’s one that’s in constant shift. New technologies come and go (or come and stay) with a much greater frequency than they used to, and the old adages just simply don’t hold. Even the best investment can wither over time, and even if it doesn’t totally turn over and start producing losses for you, it could very well be the case that your money would easily be producing better results elsewhere.

Watch your investments

Watch your investmentsAs such, always watch all your investments. Don’t take some for granted and just assume they’re doing well because they’re your “safe” ones. Actually look and analyze, all the time. Staying on top of the game and know how each stock you own is moving at any given time is the line that separates the uncertain, hesitant investor from the confident, successful one.

See you next week for part 7 of Basic Investment Strategies.

Sean Rasmussen
The Bullhunters Guide
Universal Wealth Creation © 2004 - 2008

Basic Investment Strategies, Part Five: Winners and Losers

Tuesday, March 18th, 2008

A winning stock market strategyWe’ve talked a little bit in the past about avoiding panic and not succumbing to the urge to totally change your investment strategy due to a forecasted bottoming out in a typically sound industry or other similarly baseless projections. However, this of course does not mean that you should stick in there and weather every storm that comes along. Of course there will be a time when you actually should sell some of your interests and move on to greener pastures.

Adjusting or abandoning your strategy

The real trick is knowing the difference between adjusting your strategy and abandoning it altogether. Say for instance that much of your portfolio is occupied by investments in sound technological industries, like telecommunications or other technologies that have been around a long time and have become an integral part of human life. Huge surges and catastrophic losses are effects that tend to plague the life of new industries. The longer a stock has been around, the more it tends to equalize. Over time, the chances of a massive gain or loss will tend to stabilize and an investment can be considered to be lower-risk. Therefore, don’t panic in the case of these investments, even if they look shaky. You are very unlikely to “lose the farm” due to a single stock bottoming out, especially if the stock is in an area with a long history.

Selling stocks in your portfolio

Selling your stocksHowever, like we mentioned, there will of course be times that you should adjust your strategy. Selling one or two of the particular stocks in your portfolio is a far cry from selling everything and starting over and should be considered a normal part of trading. The general rule of thumb to be followed is to look at each stock individually. If you have net losses in any stock, ask yourself whether or not you would buy shares in it today, as a new investment. If the answer is no, go ahead and sell it off. Chances are that waiting to break even on a stock like that will just frustrate, and in the meantime, you could be putting that money into a stock that will perform better.

Making a calculated move to greener pastures is what a smart investor does. This is adjusting your strategy, and is the technique to shoot for.

See you next week for part 6 of Basic Investment Strategies.

Sean Rasmussen
The Bullhunters Guide
Universal Wealth Creation © 2004 - 2008